D2C growth experiments
8 of 14 planned articles published.
Cart abandonment flows that don't beg An escalating discount flow recovers more carts and earns less. On modelled figures a reason-led flow recovers 8% of carts for Rs 35,280 of contribution, while a flow escalating to 20% off recovers 13% and nets Rs 24,120 after strategic abandonment. What to do when your CAC crosses your AOV Comparing CAC to AOV is a category error. AOV is revenue and CAC is paid out of margin, so at a 35% gross margin a CAC equal to AOV is 2.86 times the contribution of one order. The comparison that matters is CAC against cumulative contribution. The growth loops that don't need paid media Three loops compound without paid media: referral, content and geo-density. Cycle time matters more than loop strength, because a modelled geo-density loop at a 1.10 coefficient and a 30 day cycle doubles in 218 days while a content loop at 1.25 and 120 days takes 373. Nine D2C experiments you can run this week Nine experiments ship in under a day each, and the useful discipline is checking the sample size first. At 36,000 monthly sessions, detecting a 20% relative change in checkout completion takes 2 days, while the same change in order conversion takes 25. The unlock nobody talks about: your second order The second-order rate sets the ceiling on what a brand can pay to acquire anyone. Raising it from 25% to 45% lifts modelled lifetime contribution from Rs 980 to Rs 1,260, which is a 29% larger acquisition budget rather than a retention improvement. Viral D2C hacks to grow sales Mechanics that create their own distribution beat campaigns that buy it, because the reach arrives with every order rather than with every rupee. On modelled share rates, a referral link on the order confirmation reaches 96 people per 100 orders for half a day of work. WhatsApp as a growth channel for Indian D2C WhatsApp forwards are the largest untracked channel in Indian D2C. A modelled share into a group of eight, forwarded onward at 10%, reaches 31.6 people across five generations, and none of them arrives carrying a referrer your analytics can read. Zero-budget launches that actually moved numbers Three mechanics launch a product with no media spend: a pre-built waitlist, a zone-gated early access window, and chained invites. On modelled figures they produce 202, 179 and 141 launch-day orders, and all three draw on the same customer base.